Modeling Macroeconomic Output Gains from Quantum-Driven Productivity: Scenario-Based Forecasts

Abstract

Emerging advances in quantum computing have raised significant expectations regarding their potential to accelerate computational processes and transform productivity across multiple industries. While most existing research focuses on micro-level applications such as optimization, cryptography, and materials discovery, the broader macroeconomic implications of quantum-driven productivity remain underexplored. This paper investigates modeling macroeconomic output gains from quantum-driven productivity using scenario-based forecasts, examining how the diffusion of quantum technologies could influence economic growth, sectoral productivity, and global competitiveness. By integrating scenario analysis with computational economic modeling, the study evaluates potential productivity pathways under varying technological adoption rates, infrastructure readiness, and policy environments. The analysis highlights both the opportunities and uncertainties associated with quantum technology diffusion, emphasizing the role of innovation ecosystems, investment strategies, and regulatory frameworks in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. The findings suggest that while quantum technologies may generate substantial productivity gains in the long term, their macroeconomic impact will depend on complementary investments in digital infrastructure, human capital, and technological governance.