Scenario-Based Macroeconomic and Financial Forecasting Using Quantum-Enhanced Models

Abstract

Macroeconomic and financial forecasting plays a central role in policy design, risk management, and capital allocation, yet traditional econometric and machine learning models often struggle with nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and high-dimensional uncertainty. This paper explores scenario-based macroeconomic and financial forecasting using quantum-enhanced models, examining how hybrid quantum–classical frameworks can improve predictive performance under complex and volatile conditions. By integrating quantum optimization, probabilistic sampling, and high-dimensional feature mapping with scenario analysis techniques, the study proposes an architecture for modeling systemic risk, regime shifts, and tail-event dynamics. The analysis evaluates theoretical advantages, computational constraints, and implementation challenges within the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era. The findings suggest that quantum-enhanced forecasting may complement classical approaches by expanding solution space exploration and enhancing scenario sensitivity, thereby contributing to more resilient macro-financial decision-making systems.